Key Takeaways
The NFL’s Week 11 kicks off Thursday night when the Green Bay Packers travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. But the matchup NFL fans are waiting for happens on Monday Night Football when the Chiefs travel to LA to play the Rams.
Patrick Mahomes brings an explosive Kansas City Chiefs offense to Los Angeles Monday night to take on an equally explosive Rams team in a matchup of two 9-1 teams. (Photo: Associated Press)Games are listed in the order they will be played. All lines are via the Westgate Las Vegas Sportsbook.
Will sportsbooks get in the kind of trouble they found themselves in at the end of or will the regression back to the mean in become the new normal? Here s what to look for when betting Week 11 NFL games.
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-3), Total: 49
This is the fifth consecutive year that these two teams have matched up in the regular season. When you add in the 2015 NFC Championship game, this will be the sixth time the teams have met since 2014. Green Bay are winners of the last three but they enter Thursday’s game at 3-point underdogs. Of note: The Packers enter the game leading the NFL in rush yards per attempt (5.2 YPA) and Seattle allows the third most rush YPA (5.0)
Carolina Panthers (-4.5) at Detroit Lions, Total: 49.5
The Panthers are just one of three road favorites this week. It looks like these two teams are headed in opposite directions. Carolina (6-3) has won three of its last four games and Detroit (3-6) has lost three of its last four games. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in points allowed (Detroit allows 27.1 points per game (PPG), Carolina allows 25.8 PPG), combining that with dome conditions makes the over an enticing play.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5), Total: 49
Both teams enter this game with aspirations to win the AFC South division. The Titans (5-4) and Colts (4-5) are both looking up at the Texans (6-3) and the battle for this division title could be the most competitive in the NFL by year’s end. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck hasn’t been sacked in four straight games and leads an offense against the NFL’s best defense – the Titans surrender just 16.8 PPG.
Houston Texans (-3) at Washington Redskins, Total: 42.5
Both teams come into this game with 6-3 records as leaders of their respective divisions. The Texans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winning six straight games after an 0-3 start. The two teams are identical to each other in this situation – in road games Houston is 3-2 straight up and against the spread, and in home games the Redskins are 3-2 straight up and against the spread. If you’re looking for an edge, wait for the first score of the game and then make an in-game bet – the team to score first in each of the Redskins nine games this season has won the game.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, Total: 46.5
This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional Round game. In that contest the Jaguars traveled to Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers in a 45-42 shootout to advance to the AFC Championship game. It was the second time the Jaguars won at Heinz Field during the 2017-18 season, so this is a revenge game for the Steelers.
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-8), Total: 56
It’s rare to see the reigning Super Bowl champs come into a game as underdogs of more than a touchdown, but the Eagles don’t look like the same team this year. They’re also running into a buzzsaw. It’s been an impressive two weeks for New Orleans. They beat the previously unbeaten Rams 45-35, then traveled to Cincinnati and won 51-14 in what would have been a “let down” game for some teams. The Saints have also been monsters against the spread, going 7-2 ATS this season and covering in every game since Week 3.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2.5), Total: 44.5
This is the first of two meetings between the teams this season that could very well decide the winner of the NFC North division. At 6-3, the Bears lead the division but Minnesota sits behind them at 5-3-1. The winner will take over sole possession of first place heading into Thanksgiving. The Bears enter this game as the only team in the NFL with a top five defense (allowing 19.4 PPG) and a top five offense (scoring 29.9 PPG)
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5), Total: 63.5
Over bettors have finally reached their Mecca. Originally slated to be played in Mexico City, unplayable field conditions moved the game to Los Angeles. NFL executives are salivating at the ratings possibilities for this primetime Monday Night Football matchup – fans love scoring and the Chiefs (35.3 PPG) and Rams (33.5 PPG) are the second and third highest scoring offenses in the league. The game also features three MVP candidates in starting quarterbacks Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes as well as . As long as it stays at 61.5 or above, this game will feature the single .
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